Australia's Iluka Predicts Increased Rare Earth Demand by 2033

iluka resources

According to Tom O'Leary, CEO of Australian mineral producer Iluka Resources, the evolving global demand driven by renewable energy technologies is expected to significantly increase the consumption of neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium by 2033. O'Leary shared these insights at the International Rare Earth Industry Association's annual conference in Tokyo, Japan, last week.

Iluka anticipates that the ongoing transition to renewable energy, particularly through electric vehicles (EVs) and wind power, will continue to drive the demand for rare earth materials over the next decade. O'Leary stated that global demand for praseodymium-neodymium and dysprosium/terbium is projected to rise from 63,000 tons per year (t/yr) in 2023 to between 93,000 and 171,000 t/yr by 2033. Specifically, the consumption of dysprosium/terbium is expected to grow from 1,100 t/yr to between 1,900 and 5,100 t/yr during this period.

In the EV sector alone, the demand for praseodymium-neodymium is expected to increase from 12,000 t/yr in 2023 to between 33,000 and 62,000 t/yr by 2033. Similarly, the EV sector's demand for dysprosium and terbium is likely to rise from 500 t/yr to between 1,300 and 3,000 t/yr over the same timeframe.

The wind power sector is also expected to see a significant rise in praseodymium-neodymium consumption, projected to grow from 6,000 t/yr in 2023 to 26,000 t/yr by 2033. The demand for dysprosium and terbium in this sector is anticipated to increase from 200 t/yr to between 300 and 1,600 t/yr.

Other application fields, including automotive, consumer electronics, industrial applications, and home appliances, are forecasted to consume between 53,000 and 83,000 t/yr of praseodymium-neodymium by 2033, up from 45,000 t/yr in 2023. The consumption of dysprosium and terbium in these fields is expected to grow from 300 t/yr to between 400 and 600 t/yr during the same period.

Iluka predicts that by 2030, 35% of global demand for dysprosium and terbium will come from e-mobility sectors, and 20% from wind power. "The global supply of dysprosium and terbium in 2030 is projected to fall short of total demand," O'Leary noted. "Iluka's Eneabba refinery is expected to account for more than half of the supply outside China once it starts commercial production by 2025."

Iluka, which produces zircon, ilmenite, and rutile in Australia and Sierra Leone, aims to achieve an annual output capacity of up to 23,000 t/yr of rare earth oxide (REO), including 5,500 t/yr of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and 725 t/yr of dysprosium and terbium oxide from its refinery, supported by a $1.25 billion non-recourse loan from the Australian government.

The company has also signed an initial agreement with rare earths developer Northern Minerals to supply concentrate to Iluka's Eneabba refinery, set to commence production in 2025-26. This agreement includes the provision of 30,500 t of rare earth concentrates from Northern Minerals' Browns Range project, with an annual supply of 5,000 t for the first four years.

Iluka has a secure supply of heavy rare earths from stockpiles at its Eneabba refinery and additional supply options from its Balranald project and Wimmera deposits in New South Wales and Victoria. The Eneabba refinery can be supplied for five years with its stockpile of 1 million t of high-grade rare earth concentrate, readily available at the surface. The Balranald project is expected to deliver an additional 5,000 t/yr of rare earth concentrate from 2026. Feasibility studies are ongoing at the Wimmera deposit, which has the potential to supply 15,000 t/yr of rare earth concentrates over a mine life exceeding 25 years.