European Bi, In Price Rallies Stall on Profit-Taking

The surge in European bismuth and indium prices has decelerated as sellers capitalize on the substantial gains made in the second quarter, prompting slight declines in the past two weeks. Initially, speculation and constrained feedstock availability in China drove a sharp rise in prices, leading European sellers to elevate their offers in line with increasing replacement costs.

Bismuth prices in Europe saw a remarkable 77% increase from April to June but experienced a modest dip in early July due to profit-taking activities. Traders, seeking to benefit from the recent price rally, sold long-held low-cost materials at discounted rates compared to the higher-cost replacement materials sourced from China.

Similarly, indium prices, which reached a nine-year peak of $373-413/kg in June, have slightly receded to $373-401/kg. This adjustment followed a downturn in the Chinese domestic market, prompting European sellers to lower their offers and secure profits from the 35% price rise seen in the second quarter.

Despite tepid demand from European consumers, both metals experienced rapid price hikes in the second quarter, driven by elevated replacement costs from China. Chinese export prices for bismuth surged by 63% from April to June, remaining stable at $6.14-6.26/lb fob. Environmental inspections in China, which restricted the supply of bismuth concentrates from lead and zinc refineries, and speculative trading further exacerbated this price rise.

Indium supply constraints from China's Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi provinces due to environmental checks, coupled with trading activities on the Zhonglianjin platform, propelled prices upward. Although Chinese export prices for indium peaked at $371-391/kg fob in mid-May, they declined to $359-374/kg through June as trading activity slowed.

Speculation Fuels Minor Metal Price Increases

The swift price increases for bismuth and indium have spurred speculation about potential hikes in other minor metals such as selenium, tellurium, and germanium, whose prices are already trending upward.

Selenium prices in Europe were assessed at $10.40-13.10/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up from $10.30-12.40/lb at the end of June, marking a 7% rise in the second quarter driven by higher replacement costs from China and consistent demand.

Tellurium prices rose by 13% in June, last assessed at $91-99/kg duty unpaid Rotterdam, reflecting tight supply in European warehouses and rising prices in China.

Germanium metal prices hit a nine-year high of $1,810-2,010/kg cif main airport on July 2, up from $1,620-1,920/kg at the start of June, following an increase in Chinese export prices. The average germanium price in the first half of this year was $1,607/kg, significantly higher than the 10-year average of $1,324/kg, due to export controls limiting supply outside China.

Spot demand for most minor metals in Europe remains sluggish and is expected to stay low over the summer. However, market participants are closely monitoring China for indications of which minor metals might experience the next price spike, given Europe's heavy reliance on Chinese exports for many of these metals.