China Stands Firm on Metals Export Controls, Future Moves Remain Unclear

China is intensifying its export controls on crucial materials and metals but has left the international community guessing about what might be next on the list. Beginning on September 15, antimony—a metal with significant dual-use applications—will fall under these new restrictions, a move consistent with recent measures applied to gallium, germanium, and graphite over the past year.

During a press briefing, when asked whether tungsten, another key material where China holds a dominant market share, might soon face similar controls, He Yadong, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, remained vague. He reiterated that China will continue to implement export controls "in accordance with laws and regulations," without specifying additional metals that might be affected.

He emphasized that the controls on antimony, used primarily in fire-retardant materials and solar glass, align with "prevailing international practices" and are not targeted at any particular country or region. Despite these assurances, the timing of the announcement has fueled speculation that China's tightening grip on critical materials could be a response to recent trade frictions with the European Union.

In particular, some analysts view the new controls as a reaction to the EU's countervailing duties on Chinese battery electric vehicles (EVs). After the EU imposed provisional duties in July, Beijing requested consultations, seeking to have the tariffs reduced or eliminated. However, the final duties remained only slightly adjusted. In retaliation, China has filed a case with the World Trade Organization (WTO) challenging these duties.

The impending antimony export controls have already driven up prices in China, with foreign buyers scrambling to secure supplies amid an increasingly tight market. European buyers, in particular, are finding it challenging to source antimony, exacerbating market pressures.

Further escalating trade tensions, China has launched an investigation into EU dairy product imports, following the EU's imposition of provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel imports. He Yadong downplayed suggestions that this move was retaliatory, explaining that it was initiated in response to a petition from China's domestic industry, contrasting it with the EU's unprompted investigation into Chinese EVs.

These developments underscore the growing strain in trade relations between China and several Western nations. As these tensions mount, concerns over the security of global supply chains have intensified. At the same time, Chinese companies are increasingly looking to expand their production capabilities overseas as a way to navigate these emerging trade barriers.