EU Ferro-Titanium Imports from Russia Decline in Q2, Surge in June Amid Sanctions

In a complex geopolitical landscape marked by sanctions and shifting trade patterns, the European Union's(EU) imports of ferro-titanium from Russia witnessed notable fluctuations in the second quarter of 2024. According to recent trade data, while overall imports during April-June fell to their lowest quarterly levels since the fourth quarter of 2022, June alone saw a significant increase, reaching a nine-month high. This paradox highlights the uneven impact of EU sanctions targeting Russian ferro-alloys at the year's midpoint.

During the second quarter, the EU imported 3,321 metric tons of Russian ferro-titanium, representing a 33% increase from the first quarter's 2,497 metric tons. However, this figure still marked an 11% year-on-year decline. Within the EU, member states accounted for 2,192 metric tons, while non-EU countries absorbed the remaining 1,129 metric tons— the highest share held by non-EU states since Q2 2022.

A significant trend observed in 2024 has been the redirection of Russian ferro-titanium exports towards non-EU states, particularly China and Turkey, amid increasing sanctions. Despite this, the Netherlands broke the pattern in June by importing 473 metric tons, the highest intake by any EU country this year, slightly surpassing Estonia's January intake of 468 metric tons.

Under Article 3i of the 12th EU sanctions package, the purchase, import, or transfer—directly or indirectly—of Russian ferro-titanium is prohibited, with allowances for pre-existing contracts. However, market insiders suggest that Russian ferro-titanium may still be entering the EU through specific channels.

Market analysts had anticipated a steady decline in EU imports throughout 2024 as contracts predating the sanctions expired. However, the surge in Dutch imports in June contrasts sharply with a notable decrease in Estonia's imports, which reached their lowest level this year. For the entire quarter, Estonia imported 910 metric tons, a decline compared to both prior periods.

In parallel, Estonia's re-exports of ferro-titanium in Q2 fell to 654 metric tons, with Latvia receiving 597 metric tons and the United States 57 metric tons. Interestingly, Latvia reported zero imports directly from Russia.

China's imports of Russian ferro-titanium surged to 460 metric tons in Q2, up from zero in both the previous quarter and the same period last year. Turkey also increased its imports to 483 metric tons during this period. The potential for any of this material to eventually enter the EU remains uncertain as the market adapts to the evolving sanctions regime.

Russian ferro-titanium prices in Europe averaged $5.80-6.23 per kilogram of titanium in Q2, up from $5.33-5.81 per kilogram in Q1. The price increase reflects rising production costs and, to some extent, follows Western market trends. As of August 15, prices were last assessed at $5.60-6.30 per kilogram, as Russian suppliers lowered their offers to clear stock ahead of more stringent sanctions set to take full effect by the end of the year.