Japan Minimizes Concerns Over China's Antimony Export Controls

Japan's industrial sector is largely unphased by China's upcoming export restrictions on antimony, set to take effect on September 15. Thanks to proactive diversification of procurement sources, Japanese producers expect only a limited impact. While some in the market predict a rise in antimony prices ahead of the new regulations, there is no widespread panic.

China, the world’s largest producer of antimony, announced its decision to include antimony and related products in its export licensing scheme. Despite this, Japanese manufacturers have been preparing for such an eventuality by sourcing antimony from multiple Southeast Asian countries. "We have long been hedging the supply source risk," a Japanese market insider told Metalnomist, emphasizing the importance of not relying solely on China.

Japanese producers are also bolstering their stockpiles by increasing purchases from broader parts of the Southeast Asian market, with an eye on a potential supply crunch. This strategic move has already triggered a rise in the prices of antimony trioxide and ingots, with further increases anticipated as the export restrictions draw nearer.

However, not all Japanese producers are convinced that prices will continue to rise. Some believe that market demand will be the ultimate determining factor, drawing parallels to the drop in gallium prices following a similar Chinese export control announcement in July 2023.

Currently, Japan's domestic demand for antimony remains stable but low, with little sign of recovery. While some experts predict a rebound in the manufacturing sector, including electronics and industrial machinery, later this year, the antimony industry itself is more cautious.

In the first half of 2024, China supplied about 44% of Japan's total antimony in block or powder form, with Vietnam and Thailand contributing 26.9% and 16%, respectively. China's dominance was even more pronounced in the antimony trioxide market, where it accounted for 87% of Japan’s imports.