Global Refined Copper Market Surplus in the First Half of 2024

International Copper Study Group (ICSG)

Increased Output and Lagging Demand

The global refined copper market experienced a significant surplus in the first half of 2024, as supply continued to outpace demand. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the surplus reached 488,000 tons, a notable increase from the 115,000 tons recorded in the same period last year.

Global refined copper production rose by 6.2% to 13.9 million tons in the first half of the year. This increase was largely driven by expanded capacity in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which together account for about 53% of the world's refined copper production. Output in China grew by 7%, while the DRC's production increased by 12%, bolstered by the Kamoa-Kakula mine. In contrast, global refined copper consumption grew by only 3.4%, with weaker demand in the EU, Japan, and the US offset by gains in other Asian markets.

Production and Consumption Trends

Mined copper production also saw a rise, up by 3.1% to 11.1 million tons, driven by higher output in Chile, Indonesia, and the US. Chile, the leading producer, saw a 2.4% increase but remained below its five-year average. Indonesia experienced a dramatic 33% rise, recovering from previous constraints. Meanwhile, the Cobre Panama mine's production remained halted since November 2023.

In June, the global refined copper market produced 2.3 million tons and consumed 2.2 million tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 95,000 tons.