Molybdenum Growth Forecast Adjusted Amid Automotive and Aerospace Challenges

the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA)

The projected global molybdenum usage growth over the next decade has been revised downward due to ongoing difficulties in the automotive and aerospace sectors, according to discussions at the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) annual general meeting in Tokyo. While global automobile production is still expected to rise by 11% by 2033, the growth rate has fallen short of earlier expectations, hindered by supply chain issues and affordability concerns. In 2022, forecasts suggested that global automobile production could increase by as much as 30% over 2021-2031.

Similarly, the electric vehicle (EV) market, a significant molybdenum consumer, is expected to experience a slowdown in growth. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects an average annual increase of 21% from 2024 to 2027, down from a 61% rise between 2020 and 2023. This shift, along with the ongoing transition from internal combustion engines to EVs, is likely to reduce long-term molybdenum consumption in the auto industry.

Aerospace and Renewable Energy Keep Demand Stable

Although the aerospace and defense sectors are anticipated to be strong drivers of molybdenum demand in the next decade, both Airbus and Boeing face persistent supply chain limitations that have constrained their output. Still, these companies predict that demand for wide-body jets will double over the next 20 years. In contrast, renewable energy, particularly wind power, is expected to fuel molybdenum demand in alloyed steels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a 14% year-on-year increase in renewable electricity production in June 2024, with wind power seeing a 28.1% rise.

Despite these gains, mechanical engineering and construction sectors have dampened overall molybdenum demand due to high interest rates and China’s weakening property market. Investment in China’s real estate sector fell by 10.2% from the previous year, with new project start-ups dropping by 22.5%, underscoring steel demand challenges.

IMOA data revealed that global molybdenum consumption outpaced production in 2023, with consumption rising by 1% to 630 million pounds. China remained the largest consumer and producer of molybdenum, while output in South America declined in tandem with reduced copper production. North American production has remained largely unchanged.

Although supply is expected to grow with the expansion of production projects, the molybdenum market is forecast to remain tight throughout the next decade due to persistent demand, despite the lower-than-expected growth rate.