Copper Demand to Surge by 2.6% Annually Through 2035: BHP

BHP : Copper

BHP, the Australian mining giant, has projected that global copper demand will experience a significant increase, growing by 1 million tonnes per year until 2035. This rise is fueled by the ongoing global energy transition and the rapid expansion of the digital sector, according to a report released on Monday.

Over the past 75 years, copper demand has grown by 3.1% annually, but growth slowed to 1.9% in the 15 years leading up to 2021. However, BHP anticipates that the annual growth rate will rebound to 2.6% by 2035, driven by rising living standards and continued demand from developed economies. The report further highlighted that global copper demand is expected to grow by around 70% by 2050, reaching more than 50 million tonnes annually, an average growth rate of 2% per year.

The Role of Energy and Recycling in Future Copper Demand

A key factor in the rise of copper demand is the energy transition, which is projected to account for 23% of global copper consumption by 2050, a significant increase from the current 7%. The digital sector's share of copper usage is also expected to rise, from 1% today to 6% by mid-century.

In response to this increasing demand, recycled copper will play a pivotal role, with scrap copper supply expected to rise from approximately one-third of total copper consumption today to 40% by 2035. By 2050, recycled copper could constitute up to half of global copper usage, a vital component in bridging the supply gap.

However, challenges remain. BHP has identified the rising costs of production and declining ore grades—down 40% since 1991—as significant concerns for future copper supply. To meet the growing demand, the world will need an additional 10 million tonnes of newly mined copper annually over the next decade.