ICSG Significantly Raises 2024 Copper Production and Usage Forecast

Copper

the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) significantly revised its forecast for the global refined copper supply surplus in 2024, increasing the surplus projection by 190%, driven by higher-than-expected copper production. The ICSG now expects a surplus of 469,000 tons for this year, a sharp rise from its April estimate of 162,000 tons.

Rising Copper Mine and Refined Production

The ICSG also raised its 2024 global copper mine production forecast to 22.75 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 1.7%, up from the previously predicted 0.5%. The upward revision is attributed to new and expanded mining projects, though partially offset by the closure of Panama’s Cobre mine, which removed 330,000 tons of copper from this year’s supply.

In 2025, copper mine production is expected to rise by 3.5%, slightly below earlier projections of 3.9%. Growth will be supported by further ramp-up at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi mine, and the start of Russia’s Malmyzhskoye mine.

Global refined copper output is forecasted to grow by 4.2% this year, reaching 27.62 million tons, exceeding the previous forecast of 2.8% growth. The production rebound follows operational issues and maintenance shutdowns in 2023. Additional output from new plants in the DRC and China will further support this growth. However, a lower growth rate of 1.6% is expected in 2025 due to limited concentrate availability.

Demand and Usage Trends

The ICSG also raised its forecast for global refined copper usage to 27.15 million tons this year, implying a 2.2% growth rate. Chinese demand is expected to increase by 2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, while global usage excluding China is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. Infrastructure developments and the shift toward cleaner energy and electric vehicles will continue to drive long-term demand for copper.

For 2025, the ICSG predicts a surplus of 194,000 tons in the global refined copper balance, compared with the previously forecasted surplus of 94,000 tons.