Japan's Non-Ferrous Metals Output Shows Mixed Trends for 2025

Copper

Japan's leading producers of non-ferrous metals project a mixed outlook for the October-March 2025 period, with zinc output expected to rise, while forecasts for copper production are varied. Recent data from major companies and the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) highlights these trends, reflecting broader shifts in Japan's non-ferrous sector.

Zinc Production on the Rise, Copper Output Mixed

Mitsui Mining & Smelting, one of Japan's prominent zinc producers, forecasts a 5.9% increase in its zinc output, reaching 119,100 tons. The rise is attributed to expanded production capacity following regular maintenance conducted earlier this year between April and September. August data from METI supports this positive trend, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.8% to 34,191 tons in zinc production, marking the first growth in three months after a sharp 25.4% decline in July.

In contrast, the outlook for copper production is less straightforward. Sumitomo Metal Mining expects a robust recovery, projecting a 21.4% rise to 227,000 tons for October-March 2025. This rebound comes after planned large-scale maintenance at its Toyo plant in Ehime Prefecture, which had reduced output in late 2023. Similarly, Pan Pacific Copper, Japan's largest copper supplier, plans a 4.4% increase to 303,700 tons, indicating a positive trend in domestic copper production.

However, not all forecasts are optimistic. Mitsubishi Materials expects a 5.7% decrease in copper output, down to 196,578 tons, due to regular scheduled maintenance at its Naoshima plant in Kagawa Prefecture during the same period. Despite this, METI data shows that Japan’s electrolytic copper production has been rising consistently this year, with August output up by 4.7% year-on-year, marking seven consecutive months of growth.

These mixed projections underscore the complexity of Japan's non-ferrous metals sector, where varying maintenance schedules, production capacities, and external demand factors contribute to fluctuating output trends.