China’s Polysilicon Output Declines as Producers Seek Market Balance

Daqo New Energy

China's polysilicon production experienced significant cuts in recent months, as leading producers adjusted output to counter oversupply and stabilize the market. According to Daqo New Energy, a leading polysilicon manufacturer, output fell 15% month-on-month in July and 6% in August, marking the lowest production levels of the year. Total production dropped below 130,000 tons in August, easing market pressure and temporarily stabilizing prices.

Market Pressures Prompt Production Adjustments

The oversupply had driven polysilicon prices to a low of 35-40 yuan/kg, below cash costs for Tier 1 producers. However, by September, prices rebounded slightly to 38-43 yuan/kg as downstream buyers took advantage of the lower prices. The sector remains under strain, with four consecutive months of cash losses pushing producers to revise strategies.

In response, Daqo implemented a series of measures:

• Facility Maintenance and Utilization Adjustments: Daqo reduced capacity utilization to 50% in Q3 and produced 43,592 tons, down from 64,961 tons in Q2.
• Production Guidance Downgrade: Full-year guidance was revised to 200,000-210,000 tons, down from an earlier forecast of 280,000-300,000 tons.

CEO Xu Xiang highlighted the ongoing need for further production cuts and stronger downstream demand to sustain price recovery.

Solar Demand and Government Stimulus Provide Hope

While the polysilicon market struggles, the broader solar photovoltaic (PV) sector shows robust demand. New solar PV installations in China reached 160.88 GW in the first nine months of the year, a 25% increase compared to 2023. The fourth quarter traditionally sees the highest number of installations, bolstered by government stimulus packages encouraging state-owned enterprises to invest in renewable energy projects.

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) has set a reference price of 0.68 yuan/W for PV modules, aiming to stabilize bidding processes and provide pricing clarity.

Outlook: Consolidation and Recovery

Despite signs of stabilization, Xu noted that the market may have reached a cyclical bottom but has not yet shown a clear turning point. Poor profitability and cash burn are likely to drive higher-cost producers out of the market, paving the way for long-term capacity optimization and recovery.