Minimal Impact on US Antimony Prices Following China's Export Ban

Wogen Resources

China's recent decision to halt antimony exports to the US is expected to have a minimal effect on US antimony prices, despite the ongoing supply constraints from the Asian giant. This move comes as part of a broader export ban on "dual-use" items, including germanium and gallium, which the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced will be effective immediately.

Market Response and Analysis

US market participants had largely anticipated the export ban, suggesting that the initial impact on antimony prices might be subdued. "The question now is where we go from here," a European trader explained to Metalnomist. He noted the need for the market to find stability in terms of price ceilings and floors.

Prior to the announcement, US traders had already begun testing lower price offers, ranging from $38,500 to $39,000 per ton on a cif basis. This adjustment came after a period of resistance to higher prices spurred by panic buying in the preceding months. According to another trader, while it's unlikely that prices will decrease significantly from current levels due to supply-side constraints, the market might see even fewer offers moving forward.

Global Search for New Suppliers

This ban underscores the growing urgency among global antimony consumers to find new supply sources. With a significant portion of the US antimony supply traditionally sourced from China, countries like India, Bolivia, Myanmar, and Vietnam may become alternative routes for this critical metal.

Potential Opportunities and Developments

In light of these supply challenges, Turkey could emerge as a beneficiary, given its substantial antimony production capacity. Additionally, new developments in Australia, such as the Hillgrove project in New South Wales, promise future relief, with plans to produce a notable portion of global antimony output starting in 2026.

In the US, Perpetua Resources is advancing its Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho, which is set to significantly contribute to the domestic supply once operational.