Uncertainty Looms Over Russian Ferro-Titanium Market Amid EU Sanctions

Ferro-Titanium (Fe-Ti)

The European ferro-titanium (FeTi) market is facing a period of uncertainty as the EU sanctions on Russian ferro-alloys are set to be fully enforced. Market participants are divided over whether the sanctions will have a lasting impact on Russian FeTi supplies or if the overhang of Russian units in Europe, coupled with low demand from steel mills, will continue to create downward pressure on prices in 2025. A key point of concern is the potential for circumvention, with fears that Russian material may be rerouted or rebranded through non-EU countries.

Legal Framework and Market Response to Sanctions

Under the sanctions, ferro-titanium imports from Russia that were contracted before 19 December 2023 and presented to customs before 20 December 2024 may still enter free circulation within the EU. However, despite the clear framework outlined in Council Regulation 833/2014, uncertainty continues to surround how the market will react once these conditions change.

"Everyone is waiting for 20 December, it seems nobody understands what will happen," commented a European producer. There is significant ambiguity as to how the market will balance the loss of Russian material, particularly in light of high inventories of Russian ferro-titanium already present in warehouses in the Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, and Germany. Imports in 2024 have already been lower than in previous years, but it remains unclear where the remaining stock will end up, especially as many buyers continue to avoid Russian FeTi.

Trade Dynamics and Impact on the Market

Despite sanctions, imports of Russian ferro-titanium to the EU remained significant in 2024, particularly in Estonia, Germany, and the Netherlands. In fact, Estonian imports in October 2024 reached a 10-year high of 591 tonnes, signaling that sanctions have not entirely stopped the flow of Russian material into the EU. Westbrook Resources, a UK producer, has called for increased vigilance among buyers to ensure they are not inadvertently purchasing smuggled or rerouted material, highlighting the difficulty of tracking the origin of ferro-titanium in the current market environment.

As of 20 December 2024, no fresh Russian ferro-alloys will be allowed into the EU, leading to a projected loss of 766 tonnes per month based on 2023 averages. While EU and UK producers may be able to cover this shortfall with unused capacity, the reduction in available supply is likely to increase demand for raw materials, driving up prices for scrap and raising production costs for ferro-titanium. However, overall demand from steel mills and cored wire manufacturers has been weak, due to an economic downturn and lower steel prices. This will likely temper any significant price increases, though temporary spikes may occur if first-quarter tenders prompt urgent purchases.

Circumvention Risks: Material Rerouting and Relabelling

Despite the official ban on Russian ferro-titanium imports, there are ongoing concerns about circumvention. The EU regulation explicitly prohibits releasing goods if there are grounds to suspect circumvention, but market sources argue that loopholes remain. Materials may be rerouted, relabelled, or blended through countries such as Turkey, India, China, or Kazakhstan, creating a potential grey market for Russian FeTi in Europe. Chinese imports of Russian ferro-titanium have already been on the rise, suggesting that circumvention may already be in play, though Europe has not yet seen significant volumes of these rerouted materials.

Logistics challenges, including the extra costs of rerouting and repackaging, may limit the feasibility of circumvention unless steel prices in Europe increase. Additionally, there are reports that Russian producers may shift to exporting titanium scrap, a material not covered under the EU sanctions. This could provide an alternative route for Russian producers to bypass restrictions, further complicating the market dynamics.

Conclusion

As the sanctions on Russian ferro-titanium fully come into force in December 2024, European market participants remain in a state of uncertainty, unsure of how the market will respond to the loss of Russian material and the potential for circumvention. While EU producers may absorb some of the shortfall with existing capacity, broader market conditions, including weak demand from steelmakers and rising production costs, could create a complex and volatile pricing environment.