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Indonesia Nickel mining |
Government Considers Limiting 2025 RKABs to Stabilize Nickel Market
Indonesia is contemplating a reduction in 2025 nickel ore mining quotas, known as RKAB work plans. This action aims to counteract the current nickel price downturn. Market participants suggest a potential quota reduction to 150-200 million wet metric tonnes (wmt). The government may also revoke RKABs for companies failing to meet environmental standards. However, no official decision has been made regarding the review of approved RKABs.
Potential Market Impacts and Smelter Concerns
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has approved 292 RKABs for 2025. The total approved volumes are estimated to be less than 250 million wmt. A significant cut to 150 million wmt could decrease global nickel production by 30-40%. Such a reduction may stabilize prices. However, it could also undermine market confidence. LME nickel prices have fluctuated, recently rebounding above $15,000/t. Smelters fear that quota cuts may not adequately supply their operations. To secure ore, market participants might increase imports. Notably, the Philippines supplied 10 million t of nickel ore to Indonesia in 2024. Yet, imported ore results in higher production costs, impacting smelter margins.
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