Ball Corporation Anticipates Strong Aluminum Can Shipment Growth in 2025

Ball Corporation

Rebound in North American and Global Markets Expected as Demand for Sustainable Packaging Rises

Ball Corporation, a leading aluminum packaging firm, is expecting a significant rebound in aluminum can shipments in 2025, projecting growth rates between 2-3%. This follows a 2024 performance that fell short of their target, where global aluminum shipment volumes increased by just 1%, below their 2% growth target. Despite this, the company is optimistic that demand will rise due to various factors, including sustainability trends and strategic expansions.

North American Market Outlook

In North America, beverage can volumes, which accounted for 43% of Ball's revenues in 2023, saw a decline in 2024. A weaker beer market and financial challenges facing end consumers impeded volume growth. However, Ball expects a recovery in 2025, driven by increased demand and new investments. To meet this growth, Ball acquired Florida Can Manufacturing and its Winter Haven, Florida, plant in February 2024. Additionally, the company plans to build a two-line can plant in Oregon to service the northwest U.S., reducing the need for cross-country shipments. These expansions will help Ball increase its production capacity and capitalize on the rebound in demand.

Ball's growth projections in North America are contingent on the U.S. government not imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, particularly at the 25% rate previously proposed by former President Donald Trump. Ball is concerned that such tariffs would increase costs for customers, ultimately leading to reduced consumer demand.

Global Market Expectations

Globally, Ball's EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) segment saw slight growth in 2024. Cans have gained popularity in Europe as sustainability laws have encouraged customers to shift from glass to aluminum packaging. Ball forecasts a steady 3-5% annual growth in the European aluminum can market through at least 2028, underscoring its optimism about the region's continued demand for sustainable packaging solutions.

In South America, Ball saw mixed results. While beverage can volumes in Brazil grew by 1% in 2024, slower growth was attributed to tight supply conditions. However, Ball expects stronger growth in 2025, with projections of 2-4% growth in Brazil, 4-6% in Chile, and more than 10% in Paraguay compared to 2024.

Financial Performance and Future Plans

Despite a slight drop in full-year revenue, from $12.1 billion in 2023 to $11.8 billion in 2024, Ball's profit surged significantly. Profit quadrupled to $4.01 billion, compared to $707 million in 2023. This improvement highlights the company's resilience and its capacity to adjust to market challenges.

In conclusion, Ball Corporation is strategically positioning itself for growth in 2025 and beyond. With expanded capacity in North America, increased demand for sustainable packaging in Europe, and positive expectations in South America, the company is set to meet the challenges and opportunities of the global aluminum can market.