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| Cochilco |
Global Lithium Surplus Set to Increase by 58% in 2025
The global lithium surplus will grow significantly in 2025 due to weaker-than-expected demand in China and the United States. According to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), lithium production will exceed demand by 141,000 metric tons (LCE) in 2025, compared to 89,000 metric tons in 2024.
Lithium Supply Growth Outpaces Demand
Cochilco projects global lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) demand to rise 23% to 1.39 million metric tons in 2025. However, supply is expected to increase by 26% to 1.54 million metric tons, further widening the surplus. The slowdown in China’s EV sector and slower-than-expected growth in the US lithium market are key contributors to this imbalance.
Price Forecast and Market Adjustments
Cochilco forecasts lithium carbonate prices to average $11,399 per metric ton (CIF Asia) in 2025, based on Consensus Forecast's November 2024 report. Despite growing supply, some lithium producers have announced supply cuts to offset declining prices and prevent market oversupply.
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