EU Molybdenum Market Faces Pressure in 2025 from Rising Supply and Slowing Demand

Molybdenum

Price Declines Expected Amid Increased Production and Weak Steel Demand

The European molybdenum market is under significant pressure as supply surges while demand remains sluggish. This imbalance is expected to push prices down further from their 2024 highs, as both production and consumption trends signal an ongoing shift in the market.

In early February, the European molybdenum complex saw prices hit a nine-month low. Ferro-molybdenum (FeMo) was assessed at $49.40-49.80/kg in Rotterdam, while molybdenum oxide (MoOx) was priced at $20.60-20.85/lb. These figures represent a notable dip from the highs observed in 2023, when prices were buoyed by a shortage of immediate supplies. The average FeMo price in 2024 was $49.74/kg, the second highest since 2008, while MoOx prices averaged $19.63/lb, marking the second highest level since 2008.

Increased Supply Pressures Prices

Rising supply is a major factor contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Major molybdenum producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan and Chilean state-owned Codelco, are ramping up production at their copper mines, where molybdenum is often recovered as a by-product. This increase in output is expected to intensify competition in the market and put further strain on prices. In addition, the expansion of Chinese production, driven by efforts to restructure the steel industry, is set to add to global supply levels. The adoption of advanced manufacturing techniques is also contributing to greater output, resulting in an oversupplied market.

Market participants are predicting that FeMo prices could decline to the $45-47/kg range, especially if molybdenum extraction resumes in full swing from various mining operations. The increased production has led to a more competitive environment, which may push prices lower throughout 2025.

Weak Demand in European Markets

While supply continues to rise, demand for FeMo and MoOx in Europe is showing signs of weakening. Steel producers are reducing their alloy intake, reflecting slower buying activity in the market. Despite the growth in industries linked to electric vehicles and renewable energy, these sectors have not been able to offset the broader slowdown in steel production. The ongoing decline in construction and infrastructure projects is expected to keep demand for molybdenum alloys subdued in the short term.

Additionally, political uncertainties and fluctuating energy costs continue to create volatility in the market, making it difficult to forecast the full extent of molybdenum price declines. In light of the pessimistic outlook, many market participants are adopting a cautious approach, opting to work on long-term contracts or deal on a hand-to-mouth basis, with a limited number of truckload inquiries being observed.