Freeport-McMoRan Forecasts Lower Copper Sales, Higher Molybdenum Sales in 2025

Freeport-McMoran

Copper Sales Decline Amid Export Restrictions and Shipment Timing

US mining giant Freeport-McMoRan expects lower copper sales in 2025, projecting 4 billion pounds (1.79 million metric tons), down from 4.07 billion pounds in 2024. The company's fourth-quarter copper sales fell to 992 million pounds, reflecting lower ore grades and shipment timing.

Copper production remained stable at 4.21 billion pounds in 2024, with Q4 output dropping slightly to 1.04 billion pounds. Average realized copper prices rose to $4.21/lb in 2024, marking a $0.36/lb increase from 2023.

Molybdenum Sales and Production Outlook

Freeport expects to sell 88 million pounds of molybdenum in 2025, following a 3-million-pound drop in 2024 sales to 78 million pounds. Molybdenum production slipped to 80 million pounds in 2024, though Q4 production increased to 22 million pounds.

The average molybdenum price fell by $2.87/lb to $21.77/lb in 2024, despite a Q4 price increase to $22.23/lb.

Indonesian Operations and Export Challenges

Indonesia's copper production in Q4 2024 dropped 60 million pounds year-over-year to 429 million pounds. Despite this, annual production increased to 1.8 billion pounds, up from 1.66 billion pounds in 2023. Indonesia banned copper concentrate exports from January 1, but Freeport has requested an exemption until its fire-damaged smelter is repaired by mid-2025.

Expansion Plans in North and South America

In North America, Q4 copper production increased slightly to 321 million pounds, while South America saw a 5-million-pound increase to 291 million pounds. For 2024, total production fell in both regions.

Freeport is evaluating a 200-250 million lb/year expansion at its Bagdad mining complex in Arizona, requiring copper prices between $3.50-4.00/lb to justify the $3.5 billion investment. The company is also considering expansions at Safford/Lone Star in Arizona and a new mill project in Chile, with feasibility studies underway.