Mixed Prospects for China's NEV Exports in 2025 Amid Rising Costs and Geopolitical Challenges

China NEV

Unpredictable Growth Trajectories:

Balancing Innovation and International Trade Tensions The future of China’s New Energy Vehicle (NEV) exports looks uncertain in 2025, as geopolitical tensions and rising costs may impede the expansion of Chinese vehicles into global markets. Despite a 6.7% increase in exports in 2024, amounting to 1.284 million units, the ongoing geopolitical curbs could dampen this upward trend.

Technological Edge vs. Geopolitical Barriers Chinese NEVs, renowned for their innovative technology in battery and autonomous driving systems, have seen a rising acceptance in diverse markets, including Southeast Asia, Europe, and South America. Leading companies like BYD and CATL are spearheading advancements, notably BYD’s blade battery with 180 Wh/kg energy density and CATL’s Qilin battery, boasting 255 Wh/kg and a 1,000km range. Moreover, Huawei is enhancing the intelligence of NEVs with high-precision mapping and sensor integration.

Navigating Through Trade Barriers:

The Impact on Exports However, trade barriers pose significant threats to this growth. Western governments, including the EU and North America, have imposed heavy tariffs and other protective measures, complicating China’s export strategies. Despite these challenges, the initial 11 months of 2024 saw robust import numbers from countries like Belgium, Brazil, the UK, Thailand, and the Philippines.

The Road Ahead: Stability or Stagnation in the Face of Adversity With the EU imposing countervailing duties and continuous trade negotiations showing slow progress, the outlook for 2025 remains cautiously stable. This stability is further threatened by high manufacturing costs and the need for substantial investment in new technologies, set against the backdrop of intense competition and reducing government subsidies.