China’s Antimony Metal Output Edges Up in 2024 Amid Tight Concentrate Supply

Aantimony

China's Antimony Production Faces Challenges Due to Limited Resources and Export Controls

China's Antimony Metal Production in 2024 Shows Modest Growth

China's antimony metal output saw a slight increase in 2024, with production reaching 66,534 tons, a modest 0.5% rise from the previous year. Despite this increase, the output remained relatively stable since 2021. The tight supply of antimony concentrate over the past few years has played a significant role in limiting production growth. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association, the slight rise in antimony metal output reflects a delicate balance of supply and demand, influenced by both domestic resource depletion and restrictions on concentrate imports.

Decreased Antimony Trioxide Production and Weaker Demand

In contrast to the increase in antimony metal production, China's production of antimony trioxide, a compound used primarily in flame retardants, decreased by 4.8% in 2024. The total production of antimony trioxide fell to 91,700 tons. Weaker demand from the flame retardant industry has been a primary factor in this decline, illustrating the ongoing challenges faced by the antimony sector. These developments suggest that while antimony metal output remains stable, the market for certain antimony products is facing a contraction.

Export Controls and Global Price Surge: Anticipated Decline in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, China's antimony production is expected to remain mostly steady or potentially decline. This forecast is influenced by several factors, including low operation rates maintained by producers in recent years, diminishing domestic resources, and tight import restrictions on antimony concentrate. The situation has been exacerbated by export controls imposed on antimony since September 2024, which have limited the availability of the metal outside of China. Consequently, global antimony prices have surged to double the price of China's domestic antimony, narrowing the price gap. This price disparity may further restrict the availability of concentrate for Chinese smelters and reduce production as concentrate from countries like Myanmar and Tajikistan is increasingly diverted to international markets where prices are significantly higher.