Metal Futures Plunge Amid Rising Global Trade Tensions

LME

New US Tariffs and China's Retaliatory Measures Drive Sell-Off in Base Metals

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a significant decline on Friday as the global trade environment became more volatile. The new US tariffs and China’s retaliatory actions sparked concerns about a potential full-scale trade war and its implications for global economic growth. This turmoil led to a sharp sell-off not only in metals but also in global equities, oil prices, and the wider commodities market.

Market Reactions to US-China Trade Tensions

On April 5, 2025, the LME base metals complex dropped sharply, reflecting fears over a global economic slowdown. LME-traded base metals, although not directly impacted by the new tariffs, suffered as the potential growth impact on industries that rely on industrial metals became apparent. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets, particularly government bonds and gold, as fears of a global recession intensified.

China responded to the US tariffs by imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on all US imports, effective from April 10, 2025. Additionally, China announced measures including restrictions on rare earth exports and an investigation into DuPont’s Chinese subsidiary. These retaliatory actions further fueled concerns of escalating tensions between the two largest economies.

Sharp Declines in Key Base Metals

The turmoil hit key metals hard, with copper suffering a 5.74% drop on the LME, reaching $8,900 per metric tonne, a three-month low. Similarly, Comex copper fell by 8.83% to $4.402 per pound. Nickel, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin all saw significant losses, with the three-month LME nickel dropping 3.56%, aluminum falling 2.84%, and zinc slipping 2.84%. The declines reflected the broader uncertainty surrounding global trade and the implications for demand in sectors reliant on industrial metals.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index weakened to 102.020, reflecting broader market instability. Despite a stronger-than-expected US employment report, the US dollar remained near its six-month low, further contributing to market volatility.

Global Equities and Oil Prices Under Pressure

Global equities mirrored the downturn in metals, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 5% by midday, marking its lowest point since last May. Stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Europe were also significantly impacted, with Japan’s Topix falling 4.5%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index closing 5.1% lower.

Oil markets also felt the pressure, with Brent crude dropping by 6.8% to $69.86 per barrel, and WTI falling by as much as 7.9% to $61.66 per barrel. The sharp drop in oil prices further compounded concerns of an economic slowdown, which has sent shockwaves through global markets.