Safran Navigates Tariff Risks While Targeting Leap Engine Production Surge

Safran

Rising Demand from Airbus and Boeing Drives 2025 Leap Engine Outlook Despite Cross-Border Trade Concerns

Safran, the French aerospace giant, is closely watching potential U.S. tariff exposure as it plans a sharp increase in Leap engine production. Growing demand from both Airbus and Boeing is fueling the ramp-up, yet Safran remains cautious due to the complex global supply chain behind its CFM International joint venture with GE Aerospace.

Although Leap engine demand is set to rise, Safran's supply chain spans multiple countries. Components for the Leap 1A and 1B engines cross borders between France, the U.S., and Mexico, making them vulnerable to any future trade policy shifts. CEO Olivier Andriès emphasized this risk during the company’s full-year earnings call, stating that the impact of tariffs remains uncertain without knowing their exact scope.

Leap Engine Production Targets Face Supply and Policy Headwinds

Safran delivered 1,407 Leap engines in 2024, a drop from 1,570 units in 2023. The decline stemmed from high-pressure turbine (HPT) constraints on the 1A variant and reduced Boeing 737 MAX production, which affected the 1B. Nonetheless, the company reaffirmed its 2025 delivery target of 1,618–1,688 Leap engines, reflecting a 15–20% increase.

To support this growth, certification of a new HPT blade for the 1A is expected in 2025. Additionally, approval for an updated blade on the Boeing variant will help ease production bottlenecks. However, Safran acknowledged that both supply chain capacity and potential U.S. tariffs remain the two largest risks to this ramp-up.

Strong Growth Across Airbus Programs Offsets Leap Shortfall

Outside of the Leap program, Safran reported growth across several Airbus platforms. A320neo nacelle deliveries rose 7% to 622 units, while A330neo nacelles increased 15% to 62 units. Landing gear sets for the Boeing 787 jumped 37% to 41 units, while A320 landing gear sets rose 3% to 601.

In legacy engines, deliveries of the CFM56 rose 15% to 60 units, while high-thrust engines increased 3% to 195 units. Military M88 engine deliveries dipped slightly by two units, totaling 40.

As Safran prepares to scale production in 2025, its global manufacturing footprint—spanning over 18 sites in Mexico, 7 in Canada, and 24+ U.S. states—positions it well for long-term growth, but also increases exposure to trade risks.